A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
